Heaney’s velocity down from 2023

Andrew Heaney has made two starts so far this season for the Texas Rangers. He has failed to go five innings in either of those two starts, despite throwing a significant number of pitches in each out (90 pitches in 4.2 IP in his first start, 82 pitches in 3.2 IP yesterday). His first time out, against the Tampa Bay Rays, he was effective if not terribly efficient, striking out seven of 20 batters faced and not walking anyone, allowing just four hits. His second outing, however, saw him face 19 batters, walk three, striking out just two, and allow a home run that might still be traveling as I type this.

Really, none of that should be all that surprising, or noteworthy, to us. Heaney is someone who has been inconsistent during his time in Texas, and hasn’t, even when he has pitched well, worked deep into games. This is along the lines of what we would expect for the Andrew Heaney Experience.

What is noteworthy, however, is that Heaney’s velocity so far this season is down from 2023. In 2023, per Statcast, Heaney’s average fastball velocity was 92.5 mph. Heaney averaged 90.6 mph on 57 fastballs in his first start of the year, and 91.0 mph on 42 fastballs yesterday. Of the 99 fastballs he has thrown in 2024, only three of them have even matched the 92.5 mph average velocity he had last year.

It isn’t just fastballs, either — his curve, slider and changeup are all down 1.1-1.2 mph compared to last season.

This is a problem. Just to put this in perspective, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford have the same average velocity on their fastballs this season.

Now, Andrew Heaney isn’t a flamethrower by any means — he has had below average velocity on his fastball pretty consistently, including last year. He’s had success because he’s had an exceptional amount of horizontal movement on his fastball, which allows it to play up despite the lack of velocity. But that also gives him less margin for error when it comes to losing velocity.

I don’t want to make too big of a deal of this — it is two games into the season, his K rate is in line with last year, his walk rate is down, and his xERA and xwOBA are both significantly better than 2023. The Rangers have lost both of the starts he has made this season, but in both he was let down by the bullpen — of the nine runs he’s allowed this year, four of them scored when relievers allowed inherited runners to score.

However…this is something to keep an eye on over Heaney’s next few starts. And if we don’t see an uptick in velocity from him, we will have even more reasons to be concerned about the Ranger rotation for this first portion of the year.