NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: SpeedyCash.com 250 in Texas
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We’ve white-knuckled our way through betting against Kyle Busch in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series three times already. Twice it has worked out.
It looks like we’ll have to do it again tonight.
Busch is +130 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook’s NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds for the SpeedyCash.com 250 in Texas. That’s 43.5% implied odds, and my model isn’t anywhere near that prior to practice and qualifying.
But if we decide to bet someone else, it’s inherently a bet against Busch, which is not a fun proposition.
With that said, Busch has run six Truck Series races on higher-speed tracks since the start of 2022. He has won just two of those. So while he deserves to be the favorite, he’s not invincible.
That’s how my model views him right now. Here are the full simulations prior to practice and qualifying.
| Kyle Busch | 24.9% | 49.9% | 63.8% |
| Corey Heim | 15.3% | 37.8% | 52.9% |
| Christian Eckes | 9.1% | 28.7% | 45.7% |
| Zane Smith | 6.1% | 20.4% | 33.5% |
| Ty Majeski | 5.7% | 18.0% | 30.1% |
| Taylor Gray | 5.3% | 16.4% | 28.7% |
| Nick Sanchez | 5.0% | 17.5% | 30.5% |
While Busch is overvalued, Corey Heim is right in line with market. His implied odds at +550 are 15.4%, and I’ve got him at 15.3%. If he were to lengthen to +650 or so prior to practice, you could count me in.
Beyond that, the rest of the value lies in some longer-shots. My favorite of the bunch if Taylor Gray.
Gray has shown plenty of speed on faster tracks since he became old enough to run them last year. He was runner-up in the second Kansas race, and he added a podium in Pocono, as well.
Gray carried that success over into the first race at a 1.5-mile track this year. He finished fourth in Las Vegas and had a sixth-place average running position.
Gray is Heim’s teammate, so he’ll have to top both him and Busch in order to get the win. It’s a tall ask for a driver who turned 19 last month. But with his odds at +2800 (3.4% implied) and my model at 5.3%, I think he’s worth a long look.
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Which driver stands out to you to win Friday’s race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s latest NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
Read More: NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: SpeedyCash.com 250 in Texas 2024-04-12 16:01:48