What does Celtics’ dominant analytics say about their playoff hopes?

The Boston Celtics finished the season 64-18, their best season since the 2008 championship team. The major metrics put Boston up there statistically with some of the best NBA teams ever and their gap above the rest of the league is significant.

But, does that translate to winning in the postseason? Jared Weiss and John Hollinger dissected the numbers to see how much of the Celtics’ regular season can carry over into the playoffs.

Jared Weiss: The Celtics season is complete and it was, statistically, one of the best we’ve ever seen. Their 11.7 net rating was third all-time in the NBA. They finished 14 games ahead of the Knicks, the largest gap between the best and second-best record in a conference since the merger in 1976. The Celtics never lost more than two consecutive games.

This was a season of consistency and balance. GM Brad Stevens reconfigured this team in the offseason to have an offensive safety valve in Kristaps Porziņģis, then added a two-way guard in Jrue Holiday. While Robert Williams III and Marcus Smart were impactful the prior season, Porziņģis and Holiday took what they did to the next level.

While the Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA the past few years, this season was the difference between good and great. But while they were dominant most nights, it was surprising to see how their metrics measured up with some of the greatest teams ever. Why do the numbers say they are this good?

We made the second most threes in a single season in NBA HISTORY ???????? pic.twitter.com/zTSA4RzFn4

— Boston Celtics (@celtics) April 14, 2024

John Hollinger: It’s kind of amazing to me that nobody is talking about this. Everyone kind of shrugs their shoulders and says, “The Celtics are pretty good.” But because they haven’t won a championship yet and also are old enough not to be perceived as an up-and-coming team, the dominance of their season is getting short shrift.

Yes, the 3-point era has probably puffed up scoring margins a little, but still. The Celtics have essentially the same scoring margin as the Kevin Durant Warriors that laid waste to the league in 2016-17, and a significantly better margin than every other team this century. Contrast this, for instance, with the attention on Boston’s 2007-08 team, which had a higher raw win total but also benefited from the attention of being a “new team” with the additions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.

Weiss: This year’s team has a bit of that shiny new team smell to it. The Celtics are more similar to what the Warriors did with Durant than what Boston did with Garnett and Allen though. The Williams-for-Porziņģis swap is almost like a lower-tier version of replacing Harrison Barnes with Durant. But it had similar effects, as it freed Boston to run its system to the max through Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown while having an effective end to every offensive possession in Porziņģis.

Though the Celtics have inspired confidence they can make a run…