2024 NHL playoff preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders

By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn

Hockey is fueled by rivalries, and the NHL’s current playoff system exists to create more of them.

Think about it — there’s no surer way to guarantee that players (and fan bases) start disliking each other than by forcing divisional teams to meet in the postseason. Are those feelings starting to bubble up between the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes? Maybe, maybe not — but playoff rematches are always fun, even when they’re a little one-sided.

For the second spring in a row, the Hurricanes’ playoff journey starts with the Islanders, who are hoping a new coach means a different result.

The odds

This is a very different series from 2023, a result of both teams moving in opposite directions.

Last year’s matchup looked closer than many expected thanks in part to Carolina missing Andrei Svechnikov and starting goalie Frederik Andersen. This year, they’re back — with a lot more help, too. This is the deepest version of the Hurricanes in their current era, which calls for a jump in projected Net Rating from plus-48 to plus-74.

As for the Islanders, it’s been a slow decline. While they gritted their teeth to make the playoffs, it’s difficult to say this year’s version is as strong as last year’s. Their projected Net Rating dropped from plus-28 to plus-18. That gap has turned what looked like a close series last year, at 61 percent, to this year’s most lopsided.

The Islanders thrive on disrespect, though, and they can make this series a battle. Still, the Hurricanes may be too difficult a hurdle to overcome.

The numbers

By the numbers, this is the most slanted series. The plus-56 differential between the Hurricanes and Islanders will likely lead the way in all eight matchups.

That gap starts with offense, which isn’t the biggest surprise, considering the Corsi Canes’ reputation and the Islanders’ quality-over-quantity strategy. Carolina shoots the puck at the highest rate in the league at five-on-five and has the quality to match, with the second-best expected goal generation. The problem is this team doesn’t convert on their chances enough. Bringing in Jake Guentzel helps, but doesn’t solve everything.

The Islanders don’t shoot the puck very often, but they’re in the top half of the league in expected goals thanks to their shot quality. New York tends to push play right to the net-front area to challenge opposing goalies.

Like the Islanders, the Canes are a heavy forechecking team. But unlike their opponent, they sprinkle in some rush chances to diversify their attack. Passing also sets these teams apart; both teams limit dangerous passes against, but the Islanders don’t generate many for themselves to counter that.

The Islanders have bounced back to become a much stronger defensive team in the second half, but they still have some trouble defending leads. They at least have support in net — it just has come from a more unexpected source.

The…