2024 NHL playoff preview: Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman 

Here we go again. For the third time in the Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner era, the Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Boston Bruins in Round 1. Maybe the third time’s the charm for Toronto.

Maybe this time will, in fact, be different, especially after the Leafs slayed their first-round demons last spring. Maybe things will go the way they always do against the Bruins.

Either way, it should make for the most entertaining series of the opening round. Two bitter rivals with a deep history squaring off once more in what should be a very tight matchup headlined by stout defense in one corner and explosive offense in the other.

Does it get better than this?

The odds

It wouldn’t be a Bruins-Leafs showdown if it wasn’t painfully close for either side. The last two series went to seven. The one before the Matthews-Marner era went to seven as well. Chances are this one goes to seven, too. The odds of that happening are 32 percent, but let’s be honest — that feels low for these two clubs.

Close is the only way these two teams roll against each other: an epic coin-flip decided in the final game. As usual, that coin slightly leans in the Bruins’ favor though their edge is a lot smaller than it might’ve been earlier this season.

The Leafs played their best in the second half. The Bruins limped a bit after a strong first half. The end result is an incredible rivalry with little separating the two teams. May the best team win.

The numbers

Just three goals separate these two teams, but how they got there varies.

For the Leafs, offense leads the way. Toronto’s shot volume is 10th in the league at five-on-five, but the real strength is how the team drives to the quality areas of the ice. The Maple Leafs rely more on their forecheck and cycle game to create scoring chances, but that has helped them to sixth in the league with an expected goals rate of 2.88 per 60.

A key difference from last year is how the Leafs convert on those five-on-five chances, for a league-high three goals per 60 minutes of play. Those offensive highs extend to the power play, where the Maple Leafs’ loaded top unit is among the best in the league.

The Bruins aren’t a weak offensive team, what they lack in shot volume they make up for in quality with their shots primarily coming from that net-front area. But their advantage in this series stems from their back end.

Toronto and Boston are pretty closely matched in expected goals against and in how they limit their opponents’ rush attempts. The Bruins don’t allow much from the middle of the ice, but what really separates these two teams is goaltending.

The Bruins have one of the best goalie tandems, with essentially two starters at their disposal. At five-on-five, Boston has saved a collective 36 goals above expected, which is good for second in the league behind only the Jets. That contributes to their plus-31 Defensive Rating, which trumps Toronto’s plus-4, along…