Champions League scenarios: Here’s who can advance to knockout stage and what

With Matchday 5 in the books, 11 teams have booked their places in the last 16 of Champions League as spots in the last 16 are dwindling. Some of these are familiar faces but others are slightly unexpected. Porto, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Club Brugge, Napoli, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund, PSG, Benfica, and Manchester City have booked their places but what do other teams need to do to join them on Matchday 6?

First off, let’s take a look at tiebreakers if a team finishes level on points. Things are a little different than general league play. The first tiebreaker is the points in head-to-head matches between the tied teams. If the tied teams are still level in their points in head-to-head matches then it goes to the goal difference in head-to-head matches for the teams. Finally, the advantage would go to the team that has scored the most goals. An example is what we’ve seen from Barcelona and Inter Milan. Inter beat Barca 1-0 at home and then drew 3-3 on the road, giving the Italian club four points head-to-head with Barca getting just one via the draw. That means if they finish level on points, Inter go through. 

If multiple teams are tied after going through all of the prior tiebreakers then goal difference in all group matches comes into play. That’s followed by goals scored in all group stage matches, away goals scored in all group matches, wins in all group matches, and then away wins in all group matches. If that still doesn’t do it, we reach the disciplinary points for each team and the UEFA club coefficient. 

So let’s look at who can get out of each group

Group A

• Napoli (15 points): Group winners.
• Liverpool (12 points): Qualified for knockouts.
• Ajax (three points): Can qualify for Europa League with a win or draw against Rangers.
• Rangers (zero points): Can qualify for Europa League with w win by more than four goals against Ajax. If Rangers defeat Ajax 4-0, Ajax will advance by scoring eight goals in the competition (Rangers have scored one so a 4-0 victory would bring them to five).

Group B

• Club Brugge (10 points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win against Bayer Leverkusen or a Porto loss.
• Porto (nine points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win against Atletico Madrid and a draw or loss by Brugge or a Brugge loss and a draw against Atletico Madrid due to scoring more goals than Brugge.
• Atletico Madrid (five points): Can qualify for Europa League by bettering Bayer Leverkusen’s result.
• Bayer Leverkusen (five points): Can qualify for Europa League by bettering or matching Atletico Madrid’s result due to a better head to head record.

Group C

• Bayern Munich (15…