How these MLB teams can defy low 2023 playoff odds

As Spring Training gets under way, some teams have more reasons to be optimistic than others about their postseason chances in the year ahead. But with every team starting from square one, there’s room for some surprises.

The odds are against the nine clubs below making the playoffs in 2023, but that doesn’t mean they have no chance to get there. Here’s what needs to happen for these teams to defy the odds, which range from as high as 40.7% to as low as 8.4%, per FanGraphs’ newly released projections.

Why the odds are against them: After the Giants signed Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers but lost Carlos Rodón and failed to secure the superstar bat they were seeking in free agency, FanGraphs doesn’t think they’ve improved enough to challenge the Padres and Dodgers in the NL West. The Friars have the best first-place odds (60.3%) of any team in MLB and the Dodgers have the fourth-highest projected win total (88) in the NL. Including San Diego and Los Angeles, seven NL teams are projected to win more games than San Francisco.

How they can defy the odds: Given the Giants’ lack of elite bats, their best chance of reaching the postseason lies on the shoulders of their pitching staff. San Francisco allowed 697 runs last season, over 100 runs more than it gave up during its 107-win campaign in 2021. With Rodón gone, the Giants need Manaea and Stripling to step up and for Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani to provide better results. In 2021, Wood and DeSclafani combined for a 3.47 ERA over 57 starts. Last year, they posted a 5.29 ERA in 31 starts. San Francisco could also use more from former No. 2 overall Draft pick Joey Bart, who had a .660 OPS and struck out in 38.5% of his plate appearances in his first season replacing Buster Posey behind the plate.

Why the odds are against them: FanGraphs projects the Angels to win nine more games than they did last year (73), after they spent the offseason adding solid veterans to their roster. But there’s still a sizable gap between the Halos and the defending World Series-champion Astros in the AL West. The Angels also share a division with the Mariners, who won 90 games last year to end a 20-year playoff drought.

How they can defy the odds: FanGraphs gives the Rangers just a one-in-three chance of reaching the playoffs this season, despite projecting the club’s shiny new rotation to be one of the best in baseball. Even if the best-case scenario for Texas’ rotation overhaul comes to fruition, the club is going to need more from an offense that ranked 12th in the Majors in runs scored last year. While the Rangers focused on improving their pitching this offseason, their biggest offensive acquisition was Robbie Grossman, which means the onus is on Semien (107 wRC+ in 2022) to improve and third baseman Josh Jung (MLB Pipeline’s No. 34 prospect) to break out.

Why the odds are against them: The AL East is stacked. It’s the only division in…