NHL trade deadline deep dive: Analyzing the five biggest names on the market

The trade deadline is fast approaching and it’s time to analyze what’s out there.

As always the trade market has a variety of different options from difference-makers to depth pieces that can put a team over the top or plug some much-needed holes. There’s something for everyone and I wanted to explore the most intriguing names available and analyze what to expect from them.

With an analytical slant, I took a deep dive into three categories of players: the biggest names, the under-the-radar types and of course the red flags.

This post focuses on the biggest names, the most coveted players at the top of the trade board list who will make the biggest difference to their future team’s bottom line — and cost the most.

Here are the five biggest names available at this year’s trade deadline and what to expect out of each of them.

This year’s belle of the ball is Timo Meier, an elite scoring winger that can drive play at both ends of the ice in a big role. That’s not easy to find and the bonus is he’s not a pure rental either — he’s an RFA this summer. Meier’s $10 million qualifying offer puts a bit of a wrench in that, but he’s worth the cost. He’s currently that level of player for San Jose and on an eight-year extension, Meier’s value according to the model is $9.6 million.

With Meier, teams are getting a guy who creates chances at an elite rate and puts the puck in on the power play. At five-on-five he’s not quite a sniper, with a shooting percentage below 10 percent in each of the last three years, but he makes up for it with his volume of chances. Meier has scored over one goal-per-60 in four of the last five years. In that stretch, he ranks 26th in goals-per-60 at 1.07 and fifth in expected goals-per-60 at 1.09. If that finishing talent shoots up while paired with a better passer, Meier could become one of the league’s most dangerous scorers. On the power play, he’s already there over the last two seasons with 4.1 goals-per-60, second in the league to only Leon Draisaitl.

What makes Meier especially tantalizing is that he’s not just a scorer — he drives play. Meier has had a positive impact on expected goals in every season of his career and ranks 14th among forwards over the last five years. His impact on actual goals is nearly identical (though doesn’t rank as high). That all comes by way of his offence where the Sharks live in the offensive zone much more with Meier on the ice.

Meier is projected to be worth three wins going forward and it’s not often there’s a player of that caliber available at the deadline. The last time might have been in 2018-19 with Mark Stone, a player who completely changed Vegas’ outlook at the time … and going forward. Meier is not quite at Stone’s level, but he can be Stone-esque in terms of his offensive impact on the game. In the three years prior to being traded, the two had a similar scoring rate in all situations and the ability to drive…