2023 NHL playoff preview: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

It’s a matchup that’s been practically set in stone since November between two Atlantic Division behemoths, a much-awaited sequel to last year’s hotly-contested opening-round classic.

It’s two of the league’s best teams, each with something to prove. One wants to show they can get it done when it counts. The other wants to show they’re not done yet.

It’s the Maple Leafs. It’s the Lightning. And it’s going to be another series for the ages.

The Odds

It’s the same story as last year: the odds don’t matter. Not when it comes to the Leafs and the opening round where this is now their fourth straight series as favorites. They couldn’t get it done against Columbus. Or Montreal. Or Tampa Bay last year. They get another shot this year at the Lightning.

Toronto’s odds of winning were 62 percent last year meaning the team is only barely more likely to beat Tampa Bay compared to a year ago. That actually undersells things a bit as our new model believes that series should’ve been much closer at 56 percent instead of 62 percent.

This looks like a very different Leafs team, one that has the fortitude and will to get the job done on top of the obvious talent level. That started with last year’s series loss to the Lightning, a series where they looked equally matched to the best playoff team of the past decade. They are the deserved favorites after the season they’ve had where they finished 13 points ahead of Tampa Bay.

But these odds have a lot more to do with Tampa Bay than they have to do with Toronto. The Lightning also look like a very different team — and not in a good way.

This year it really felt like the Lightning took their foot off the gas down the stretch knowing they were locked into this matchup. Saving themselves for the real season. These odds don’t reflect any potential “switch-flipping” ability the Lightning might possess. If that’s something this current iteration is capable of, and we have no reason to not give the Lightning the benefit of the doubt, a 37 percent chance of winning this series likely undersells Tampa Bay.

The Numbers

Both teams’ play both below and at the surface level supports the idea that the Maple Leafs are the favorite.

At five-on-five, Toronto has a slide edge in offensive creation on the season as a whole from a quality and quantity standpoint. A lot of that stems from their neutral zone play, and how they turn entries into scoring chances. Tampa’s a bit more balanced in their offensive creation between transitional offense and their cycle game, the latter being their true advantage and something that tends to be important come playoff time.

The Lightning are also the better team at suppressing their opponents’ chances off the forecheck and cycle, while Toronto limits rush chances against. Overall back in the defensive zone, the Maple Leafs rank as the better team when it comes to what they allow back in terms of shots, quality looks, and actual goals…