How long will it take for BYU football to be competitive in the Big 12?

The college football landscape changed significantly more than a decade ago, when over a four-year period, 12 schools either moved up to a Power Five conference or changed power conferences.

The past decade-plus of results for those 12 programs paints a foreboding image of what may lie ahead for the next wave of teams that will be switching leagues at the Power Five level.

That will include BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston moving up to the P5 level this Saturday when they officially join the Big 12 Conference.

Next year, bluebloods will be changing conferences — USC and UCLA are heading from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, while Texas and Oklahoma switch from the Big 12 to the SEC.

The question for BYU is, how quickly will it acclimate to a heightened level of competition?

Will the Cougars — who are moving from being an independent program to a long-awaited spot in a power conference — be more like in-state rival Utah, or like Rutgers?

Fielding a consistently competitive program in the Big 12 that will compete for a conference championship — and New Year’s Six bowl or College Football Playoff appearances — could prove to be a lesson in patience for BYU fans, as well as those from UCF, Houston and Cincinnati.

Two other schools that were once in the Mountain West with BYU, Utah and TCU, have had the most success of the dozen schools who moved to or changed Power Five leagues since 2011.

Utah has won two Pac-12 championships (and played in the Rose Bowl twice) since joining the conference and has made an appearance in the league’s title game four of the past five years.

The Utes have had a winning record in conference play eight of their 12 seasons in the Pac-12, easily the best among the 12 teams who’ve shuffled conferences at the Power Five level since 2011.

Utah also has won 10 or more games four times over the past 12 years, making it the clear winner among those P5 teams with relatively new homes.

While TCU has had more valleys than Utah at the P5 level, the Horned Frogs have done something the Utes haven’t: played for a national title.

TCU, which has finished four seasons with 11 or more wins since joining the Big 12 in 2012, went 12-0 during the regular season in 2022 and advanced to the national championship game after beating Michigan in the CFP semifinals.

Among the 12 Power Five teams who’ve changed conferences since 2011, Texas A&M and Pittsburgh have also made an appearance in a New Year’s Six bowl. The Aggies and Panthers, like Utah and TCU, have consistently been winners in the SEC and ACC, respectively.

Soon enough, BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston will face that challenge of becoming a consistent contender in their new league.

BYU, unlike the other three, hasn’t played in a NY6 bowl, and comes in with challenges to be competitive in the near future — ESPN FPI projects the Cougars to finish with just five wins in 2023.

So, how long will it take — if ever — for the…