Breaking down Connor Bedard’s usage with the Blackhawks — how difficult has it

In Chicago, Connor Bedard lives alone on an island — and help is not on the way.

The 18-year-old phenom has 11 goals and 20 points in 24 games, a 38-goal and 68-point pace made all the more impressive by how deeply desolate the rest of the roster is. A season-ending injury to would-be sidekick Taylor Hall (who played all of 10 games) has only made things more grim. 

Things are so dark that even a player as immediately talented as Bedard is struggling to stay afloat amid the wreckage around him. The Blackhawks bleed goals and chances with their best player on the ice, seemingly nullifying any edge he brings to the team offensively.

Some of that is on Bedard — it’s rare for a teenager to burst onto the scene with above-average defensive chops, especially one with his physical stature. Some of that is on the environment around him — it’s rare for any player to have usage this extreme, let alone a teenager.

Finding the balance between the two is tricky as there still isn’t much of a consensus on environmental impact. Models can do their best to account for competition and teammate quality but there will still be edge cases at the extremes. Bedard’s usage is definitely at that extreme.

That’s a major reason Bedard ranked only ninth among rookies in Net Rating in the first Awards Watch of the season. To anyone who has watched even a second of Bedard this season, that ranking felt incredibly off. While his extreme usage was mentioned as a reason why his poor Defensive Rating can be partially absolved, it’s also something that should be explored more in-depth (and probably before releasing said ranking, oops). 

Just how extreme is it?

Teams usually put No. 1 picks in a strong place to succeed from the get-go with regard to who they play with.

It’s hard to do things alone and it’s nice to have a friend. Nico Hischier had Taylor Hall. Hall had Jordan Eberle (as did Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins). Nathan MacKinnon had Gabriel Landeskog. Jack Hughes had Kyle Palmieri. Those players were their most common forward linemates, each a bona fide top-six talent at the very least.

Bedard has Philipp Kurashev, who entered the season as a fourth-line caliber player (if that) and has been fortunate to be stapled to Bedard for 66 percent of the rookie’s minutes at five-on-five. On average, the sidekick to a No. 1 pick has a projected Offensive Rating of plus-5.5 and Defensive Rating of minus-1.1. Kurashev falls well below that with and without the puck, grading out as the worst sidekick since at least 2010.

That may even be generous to Kurashev. Going into the season, his Offensive Rating was projected to be minus-3 with a Defensive Rating just under minus-6. That he currently lands where he does has more to do with him getting more minutes, specifically with the team’s best player. From year to year, the only thing that’s changed is his primary assist rate and it’s hard to believe that’s legit when he graded…