Making sense of Northwestern basketball’s national ranking

Should the ‘Cats be higher or lower than No. 25 in the AP’s latest poll?

• By
  
  Adam Beck
  
• on December 13, 2023 11:24 am

For the first time since February, Northwestern is back in the AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll. After beating No. 1 Purdue to start the month, the ‘Cats received 77 points in the Dec. 4 AP Poll. With a win against Detroit Mercy and teams like Texas A&M, San Diego State and Ohio State suffering losses, NU vaulted to the No. 25 spot in this week’s rankings.

But the AP Poll is flawed, as voters tend to give boosts to big name teams and rely too heavily on the previous week’s rankings. In the early weeks of the season, preseason expectations play a factor too — just look at Michigan State, which after starting the year at No. 4, have plummeted to a 4-5 record. This creates a ranking that’s slightly behind reality, letting expectations, storylines and personal preference dictate a nationally accepted poll. In no way is this a bash against the AP Poll, but it’s essentially a futile midpoint between a glorified power ranking and ranking the best 25 teams in the country.

So what about rankings like KenPom, RPI and the NET?

KenPom’s ranking uses an algorithm to measure teams’ adjusted efficiency margin, using elements like strength of schedule to rank teams based on how efficient they are. On KenPom’s rankings, Northwestern sits at No. 41 — above Big Ten schools like Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska, but below Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan State.

More interestingly, Northwestern ranks at No. 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent) but No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent), with the great equalizer being Northwestern’s No. 341 ranking in adjusted tempo out of 362 Division I programs. Although fans might think of Northwestern as a defensive minded team, stats available like this on KenPom indicate that Northwestern’s glacial pace might subtly strengthen their defensive effort over band-aiding a lack of perceived offense.

Every Northwestern fan should love the RPI ranking, which has Northwestern at No. 22. The RPI uses a mechanism that includes a team’s winning percentage, average opponent’s winning percentage and the average opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage. After beating Purdue — which has already beaten Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette this season — Northwestern saw its ranking as high as No. 3, but beating Detroit Mercy on Sunday caused the ‘Cats to tumble down to No. 20 on Monday as the Titans haven’t found the win column yet.

The RPI is great for elevating good basketball teams that fly under the radar of…