Ranking NFL head-coaching vacancies: Why Chargers, Falcons are most appealing

With seven of the 32 NFL head-coaching jobs opening per year on average, candidates for these coveted positions usually cannot be choosy. They take the jobs they can get, and live with the imperfections.

The eight current openings will appeal for different reasons to different candidates. I’ve ranked these vacancies below using three basic criteria: likelihood of winning in the first two seasons, whether winning the division is realistic and to what degree ownership flaws might be fatal. I’m not putting much weight into salary-cap space because it can be created or manipulated, and because the big challenge is finding good players, not finding the resources to sign them.

If the criteria seems a bit short-sighted, that’s because coaches, unlike general managers, frequently must win quickly to keep their jobs. There’s less standing between them and the product on the field. Blame finds them faster. Having a longer runway and some readily available resources makes for a better job.

The Chargers went all in on 2023 and failed, so there will be a roster reckoning of sorts, especially on defense. All parties, including ownership, should understand that heading into next season.

The team’s ownership, sometimes passive to a fault, hasn’t shown an ability to drive success, but the Spanos family also isn’t known for standing in the way of it. They tend to give their leaders too much runway, which can be frustrating for fans but is welcome from a candidate’s standpoint.

Mike McCoy and Anthony Lynn each lasted four seasons without winning more than one playoff game. Brandon Staley probably could have gotten a fourth season with just one playoff berth (a first-round loss) if he had finessed the situation, but that wasn’t his style.

The new coach will inherit the hardest thing to find in football: a top-tier quarterback entering his prime years.

The Chargers have a top-five statistical offense by EPA per play with Justin Herbert in the lineup since his arrival in 2020. They have a bottom-five defense by the same measure, explaining their 30-32 record with Herbert starting. Herbert has driven the offensive success; this team has not produced much of a running game or provided outstanding protection.

Winning the AFC West, which the Chargers have not done since 2009, will remain tough with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. That is the No. 1 factor working against the Chargers in this exercise. But Herbert’s allure is strong. This team is poised to win with the right coach and GM.

Without slighting the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers too much, the Falcons reside this high on the list partly because competing in the NFC South should remain an advantage. There is no Mahomes in the division. Atlanta was 3-3 in the NFC South this season even with a ridiculous defeat at Carolina in Week 15, and even with the worst quarterback situation in the…