How much faster is MotoGP in 2024?

Well, the descriptive answer to the title question is a simple “very”, but the numbers tell a more detailed story.

Francesco Bagnaia won Sunday’s 2024 MotoGP Qatar Grand Prix in 39 minutes and 34.869 seconds. That’s 14.012 seconds faster than the winning time of Fabio Di Giannantonio (to 21 laps) last year. (It’s important to note the 21 laps, because the ordinary distance for the Qatar Grand Prix is 22 laps, but Raul Fernandez’ bike problem on the grid on Sunday meant the start was delayed and the race distance reduced to 21 laps.)

It’s probable that, had Bagnaia not almost run into the back of Di Giannantonio with three laps to go in last year’s Grand Prix, he would have finished the 21st lap in almost the same 39 minutes and 48.881 seconds as Di Giannantonio last November. In any case, Bagnaia’s 2024 time marks an improvement of 0.587 per cent in winning times between the two years, and the aforementioned likely similarity between Bagnaia’s and Di Giannantonio’s race times last year means that Bagnaia has probably made about the same half-a-per-cent improvement over his own self of last November.

Several things have changed over the winter. Bagnaia is no doubt even more confident now than he was then, with the #1 plate still stuck to the front of his Desmosedici and with another two-year Ducati contract in his pocket. But also the Desmosedici has changed, with a more powerful engine and adjusted aerodynamics that have supposedly improved the bike’s braking capabilities, perhaps at the cost of some mid-corner turning. At the same time, the tyres from Michelin have changed: the construction and profile are both the same as last year, but the compound rubber is different – harder, and therefore more durable, but reportedly without a sacrifice in grip. All of these factors, in addition to the settling of the new track surface at the Lusail International Circuit, will have played a role in the lowering of the race time.

While there are some interesting numbers within the race itself, such as Marc Marquez’ deficit of only 3.429 seconds (0.144 per cent slower than Bagnaia over 21 laps) while riding a year-old Ducati, and Alex Marquez’ 15-second improvement over last year’s first 21 laps, it’s difficult to read too much into them.

Qatar is an odd race, which takes place at night, after little-to-no representative practice (this year’s only night practice was wet), and in the middle of the desert on a track which is completely flat. Lusail is as close to unique as it gets among modern MotoGP-eligible race tracks. It’s also the first race of the year, and so to make many inferences about the season as a whole from just those 21 laps under the Lusail lights would be somewhat ignorant of reality.

But we can look at what…