The tricky dynamics of Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari move won’t wait for 2025

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Oh, to hear the private thoughts of Lewis Hamilton once he had slipped away from Jeddah at the weekend.

The seven-times Formula One world champion has made a flat start to 2024, his 18th season. It’s hard to say where expectations really sat for Hamilton and Mercedes before the opening race in Bahrain, or then into the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix seven days later. But despite signs of hope, the reality has surely fallen short.

Hamilton qualified ninth in Bahrain and finished seventh in the race. In Saudi, he made eighth on the grid but could only take the checkered flag in ninth. Notably, all four of those places have put him behind his teammate. George Russell finished fifth and sixth around Sakhir and Jeddah, from starting positions of third and seventh. With 22 grands prix and six sprint races to go, Hamilton sits ninth in the driver standings.

Of course, this slow start is playing against the backdrop of the biggest driver move in F1 history, as Hamilton prepares to leave Mercedes for Ferrari at the end of this season, where he’ll team up with Charles Leclerc. To get a better handle on how that dynamic may play out, we spoke with Bernie Collins ahead of pre-season testing.

The former strategy engineer at Aston Martin started out with McLaren and has been in F1 since she was 23. She now has a more public-facing role, delivering strategy insight via F1.com and Sky Sports’ TV coverage in the UK. She can also fully appreciate the dynamic Hamilton has in store.

“I was shocked at the news,” Collins said. “I thought Lewis’s next big opportunity would be 2026 with the new engine regulations. I had it in my head Mercedes had been so strong with their engines in the past… But maybe that was too much for him. Maybe making it through 2024 and 2025 in the hope 2026 was going to be good was too far down the road.

“But then thinking about it since, a lot of drivers have this inkling for Ferrari. It’s a massive challenge for Lewis. The people I know that know Lewis, say he’s really driven by this desire to prove himself. All drivers really want to prove themselves, but he’s going to go to Ferrari, where he’s never driven that engine before. He’s got no idea how that engine works, and it would be different to Mercedes in the modes they use and how they deploy the battery. Everything. It would be a massive step.”

A reminder: Hamilton has spent his entire F1 driving Mercedes-built engines, first with McLaren, then with Merc itself.

Come 2025, both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton will be in Ferrari red. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

“It’s also going into Leclerc’s home turf. A different mentality, different engineers, totally different team. Yes, he knows (Ferrari team principal) Fred Vasseur, but it is still going to be a massive challenge.

“Maybe he is just…