NHL bold predictions — pass or fail: What we got wrong (and right) in our

When The Athletic asked its NHL staff for a “bold prediction” for each team heading into the 2023-24 season, the instructions were clear: No gimmies this year.

“Make it something you think could happen based on what you’re seeing with the team or with a player that most people who follow the team might be surprised by, or might not agree with, or might think is taking it a step too far.”

We wanted bold, and that meant stretches. And as it turned out, most of the predictions we got were indeed stretches.

This week, with the regular-season finish line in sight, we asked writers to revisit their preseason bold predictions, and the responses ranged from “Oof” to “Trying to find a funny way to explain how bad this prediction was” to, yes, one “Hit this one out of the ballpark.”

For this exercise, each writer gave their prediction a “pass” or “fail” grade. We did allow a few “incompletes” when the jury really is still out.

Where did (most of) the picks go wrong, and why?

Here are all 32 teams’ bold predictions, revisited.

Preseason bold prediction: They will become Mason McTavish’s team

Pass, fail or incomplete? Fail

Hindsight analysis: This one was off the mark, but not by far. McTavish’s follow-up to a strong rookie season has been uneven. He’s playing more, as you’d expect (his average ice time is up by more than a minute), and he’s improved in the faceoff circle (from 42.3 percent to 52.1) and offensively (0.54 points per game to 0.66). However, the 21-year-old had a bumpy season from a defensive standpoint and is likely playing hurt, as injury has kept him out of 12 contests. There is still plenty of time for him still to become the team’s leader, and he is in the mix to wear the “C” when the Ducks decide it’s time to address the vacant captaincy. But it’s clear that Leo Carlsson is their future No. 1 center, with McTavish slotting in behind the 19-year-old. — Eric Stephens

GO DEEPER

Ducks’ Leo Carlsson, drafted in Connor Bedard’s shadow, looks for momentum in difficult rookie season

Preseason bold prediction: Nick Schmaltz will lead the team in scoring

Pass, fail or incomplete? Fail

Hindsight analysis: Schmaltz remains the No. 2 scorer on the Coyotes, just as he was a year ago, behind Clayton Keller. Injuries cost Schmaltz 19 games in each of the two seasons prior to 2023-24, but he had been a productive player when healthy (117 points in 126 games, 0.91 points per game), which is what prompted the prediction in the first place. But while Schmaltz has been healthy this season — a good thing — his points per game average has dropped, to 0.75. With 54 points overall in 70 games, he has a chance to surpass his previous career high of 59, but that’s not going to be enough to overtake Keller (67). — Eric Duhatschek

Preseason bold prediction: Jeremy Swayman will become the No. 1 goalie

Pass, fail or incomplete? Fail

Hindsight analysis: For a while, this looked like a “Pass” and it…