NHL Hart Trophy race: The case for MacKinnon, McDavid, Kucherov and Matthews

The NHL is gearing up for one of the most competitive Hart Trophy races in years.

The field is deep this year. Sidney Crosby’s vintage season is at the heart of the Penguins’ push for the playoffs. Roman Josi has been pivotal in the Predators’ turnaround. Connor Hellebucyk is the Jets’ backbone. David Pastrnak has powered Boston forward in an era without Patrice Bergeron. Artemi Panarin has been elite in New York. Quinn Hughes has been the biggest difference-maker in Vancouver. 

And yet, none of that may be enough to finish top three in voting this year. 

That’s because the top of the class is tight between the four players leading the way: Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov and Auston Matthews. 

Three are involved in what may be the most exciting scoring race the NHL has seen in the salary-cap era, while the other is a lock for the Rocket Richard.

Tuesday night was a prime example of how much this race is heating up. Matthews scored his 66th goal to reach a milestone the NHL hasn’t seen since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Kucherov put up three points in a win over the Blue Jackets. And then MacKinnon was the star attraction on the late game slate, with three goals and an assist against Minnesota. 

So, who’s the most valuable? There are a few ways to look at that, considering how impactful each player is in their unique way. 

MacKinnon’s style may be the most eye-catching. He’s a force who regularly shows how he can take over games. His four-point night against Minnesota on Tuesday earned him a season-high 6.98 Game Score. 

That brought MacKinnon up to a career-high 51 goals and 137 points, which trails only Kucherov this season. That scoring is a combination of power, speed and skill and has a direct impact on Colorado’s success considering he has a point on 46 percent of the team’s goals in all situations. 

MacKinnon does most of his damage at five-on-five, where he is one of the best dual-threats in the league. Few players can match his ability to transition the puck into the offensive zone and generate scoring chances off the rush. But what makes him so tricky to defend is his ability to set up his teammates with high-danger passes. That has helped him earn 77 points at five-on-five, almost 78 percent of which are primary. And it’s what pushes the Avalanche to control play in his minutes, with almost 57 percent of the expected goals share while outscoring opponents 98-61. 

Between MacKinnon’s scoring and all-around impact, he leads the league with a plus-30.4 Net Rating. That makes him an obvious favorite for the award. But he has competition, including from McDavid. 

McDavid got off to an uncharacteristically slow start this season. But by late November, he started to string together multi-point performances consistently again, and his impact only trends up from there. He climbed back into the scoring race where he’s third with 31 goals and 99 assists for 130 points in 74 games. While it’s…