Breaking down Matthew Tkachuk’s early-season offensive drop-off

Having a career year is one thing. Matching or exceeding it is another challenge. That’s what Matthew Tkachuk is facing this season. 

Tkachuk’s name dominated headlines in 2022-23 — from the trade and initial questions of how he’d perform outside of Calgary, to a focus on his game-changing play in Florida. He quickly proved he could drive his own line and the Florida Panthers to success, with a career year highlighted by 109 points and a third-place finish in the Hart Trophy race.

The big question was how he’d follow that up. A slower start would have been understandable after working his way back from a broken sternum. But as the Panthers approach the midpoint of the season, Tkachuk is only on pace for 74 points. That’s fine for a top-six player, but not someone who is expected to be the guy. It’s a major drop-off from last year’s 1.38 point-per-game pace, or even 1.27 from his last season with the Flames. 

What’s behind Tkachuk’s slowed scoring and should the Panthers expect it to continue?

Tkachuk’s assist rate is slightly down from his two career years, but nothing is more glaring than his slowed goal scoring. Eight goals in 39 games only puts him on pace for 17. If that’s all he can muster, it will end up as the second-lowest (82-game) single-season total of his career. When accounting for minutes played, Tkachuk has scored just 0.65 goals per 60. Not only is it the worst rate of his career, but it’s a drop of minus-0.84 from last year and even more from his last season with the Flames. 

The concerning part is that there isn’t one shortcoming or situation that’s holding him back. Tkachuk’s scoring rate is at its worst on both the power play and at even strength. Five-on-five is where most of the game is played, so that’s where we’ll start. 

Tkachuk’s shot volume is down from the last two years. The difference is negligible from 2021-22, but it’s a drop of 2.69 attempts per 60 from last year. There are two red flags here. The first is that fewer shots (a career-low 51 percent) are reaching the net. It’s not that defenders are blocking his shots at a much higher rate, but the fact that more attempts (about 26 percent) are missing the net — and it’s a major swing from last year when 83 percent of his attempts went on goal. 

Another noticeable trend is a drop-off in his expected goal generation. That’s not only down from the last two years but below his career average at 0.78 per 60. Shooting the puck less has something to do with it. It also stems from him shooting from further out. At five-on-five, Tkachuk’s average shot distance is 29.1 feet this season, which is an increase from last year’s 27.3 feet and 2021-22’s 24.9. The difference, as pictured below, seems to be that fewer shots are clustered in the scoring areas, especially right up the middle of the ice. 

Via HockeyViz

Pre-shot movement may have an influence here. Tkachuk’s primary linemates up front are the…